| 0.95% | 5.4% | 6.76% | 0% * |
| September | YTD | 1 Year | Fund Flow |
* Fund flow is for the full month of September
Overview | EOM September 2024 |
September month provided a learning that fixed income assets can equally get disconnected from fundamentals as the broader equities. Few highlights for the portfolio this month were:
- Portfolio saw 5 drawdown days throughout the month coinciding with larger market moves. However the portfolio recovered back just fine.
- New positions were built in long term treasury ETFs in order to build income stream away from short term treasury in coming year.
- Not much was done to the portfolio as this month has been hectic on personal level.
- Market outlook remains the same, recession peak expectations to arrive Q2 2025.
Graph of the month:
| Source: Twitter @Econ_Parker |
The above graph shows the impact of 3 years of elevated fed rates, combine the above graph with downward momentum of manufacturing index, manufacturing jobs it paints a bleak picture of what has to come.
The recent packages rolled out by China will not be able to do enough to stimulate global economy as the consumer side of the world is seeing a slowing demand. It could though help China stimulate its own local economy, but that would be a speculative statement.
There is no change in the outlook from my side, I am happy to be proven wrong on recession worries which in return will benefit the current posture portfolio is already meant for.
Allocation Target | EOM September 2024 |
No change has been done in the allocation targets since May.
Leverage/Hedging Rules | EOM September 2024 |
No change has been done in the leverage/hedging rules since May.
Current State | EOM September 2024 |
This month portfolio continued to hold its yearly gains and upper edge on S&P 3mo TBill index as well as on CPI rate.
Performance | EOM September 2024 |
This month saw very small amount of action in terms of purchasing diverse set of equities; the only position which was doubled down was TLTW.
 1 Yr Return Since Inception |  Portfolio vs SPBDUB3T |  Portfolio vs CPI |
The portfolio saw a stable growth in terms of appreciation throughout the month without much interventions required. No position was removed and neither a new position was opened.
Addition | EOM September 2024 |
No new position was added.
Subtractions | EOM September 2024 |
No position was removed.
Holdings | EOM September 2024 |
Below are the top 10 positions in the portfolio
| Name | Category | % portfolio |
| US Treasury 10/22/2024 | Government Bond | 36.30 |
| US Treasury 12/26/2024 | Government Bond | 15.22 |
| Alpha 1-3 Month (BOXX) | Government Bond | 7.38 |
| US Treasury 11/05/2024 | Government Bond | 6.19 |
| Nuveen CA Quality Muni Inc (NAC) | Muni Bond | 2.49 |
| PIMCO Dynamic Income (PDI) | Multisector Bond | 2.47 |
| iShares 20+ Yr Treasury (TLTW) | Government Bond | 2.23 |
| Virtus SEIX Senior Loan (SEIX) | Commercial Bond | 2.23 |
| First Trust Senior Income (FCT) | Commercial Bond | 2.18 |
| Blackrock CA Quality (MUC) | Muni Bond | 2.17 |
| Blackrock CA Muni Income (BFZ) | Muni Bond | 2.14 |
| iShares Interest Rate Hedged (HYGH) | High Yield Bond | 1.99 |
| First Trust Long/Short (FTLS) | Long/Short | 1.79 |
In terms of allocation target not much has changed in this month, I am still looking for opportunities in equities/stock as and when they present.
 |  |
Top 10 Performers | EOM September 2024 |
Below are the top 10 performing positions.
| Name | Category | % gain | % portfolio |
| DNP Select Income (DNP) | Utilities | 12.61% | 0.39 |
| Nuveen Ca AMT Free (NKX) | Muni Bond | 11.68% | 1.18 |
| Nuveen Muni High Income (NMZ) | Muni Bond | 11.19% | 1.00 |
| PIMCO Dynamic Income (PDI) | Multisector Bond | 8.28% | 2.47% |
| Nuveen CA Quality Muni Inc (NAC) | Muni Bond | 7.59% | 2.49 |
| BlackRock Muni CA Quality (MUC) | Muni Bond | 6.93% | 2.17 |
| Nuveen CA Muni Value (NCA) | Muni Bond | 6.92% | 1.68 |
| JPM Hedged Equity (JHQAX) | Option Trading | 6.50% | 0.47 |
| iShares Hedged MSCI (HAWX) | Foreign Large Blend | 5.92% | 0.34 |
| JPM Hedged Equity (JHTAX) | Option Trading | 5.51 | 1.49 |
Bottom 10 Performers | EOM September 2024 |
Below are the bottom positions, from now on positions which do not have a >0 % loss will not be included.
| Name | Category | % loss | % portfolio |
| Madison Covered Call (MCN) | Option Trading | 1.45 | 0.30 |
| Virtus ETF (SEIX) | High Yield Bond | 0.69 | 2.23 |
| First Trust Snr FLRT (FCT) | High Yield Bond | 0.50 | 2.18 |
| Pacer Fund Trust (FLRT) | High Yield Bond | 0.47 | 0.99 |
Position Analysis | EOM September 2024 |
Subtractions
No subtraction was done in this month.Additions
The only large position increase was done in TLTW after seeing the yield curve un-invert itself, although it comes with a risk if US economy falters going into next year, however it will support the yield for the portfolio for meanwhile.
Tracking this month’s performance for the biggest laggard and biggest price improvement we have the following graphs depicting their performance over the month
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The median appreciation for all the positions in the portfolio stands at 3.1%, below graph shows the aggregate of all the positions held in the portfolio.
The current yearly dividend yield of the non-treasury portfolio stands at 7% in which 30% of the yield is Federal and State tax exempted Muni bond ETF income.
That’s it for this month, we will meet now at the end of October with possibly less portfolio adjustments. The middle east conflict may throw economic recovery off around the globe, in turn causing more volatility.
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